Figure 1

Estimated survival curves after multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression. The plot shows the probability of re-incarceration against time since release from prison for two hypothetical individuals, estimated using the reduced multivariate Cox model presented in Table 3. The individuals represented are exposed to the same demographic and criminal justice risk factors for re-incarceration (<25 years of age, male, Indigenous, prior adult and juvenile incarceration, income from illegal activities, sentence <6 months, drug-related sentence). The differences in their survival curves are entirely explained by differences in the health-related factors with the ten largest effect sizes, as described in the table at right. Both profiles are not exposed to the remaining health-related variables included in the reduced model.